Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland

iForest: Biogeosciences and Forestry

article

Mariusz Ciesielski¹  Radomir Balazy²  Boleslaw Borkowski³  Wieslaw Szczesny⁴  Michal Zasada⁵  Jan Kaczmarowski⁶  Miroslaw Kwiatkowski⁷  Ryszard Szczygiel⁷  Slobodan Milanovic⁸ 

[1] Department of Geomatics, Forest Research Institute;Prevent Fires Foundation;Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Institute of Economy and Finances, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW;Department of Applied Informatics, Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW;Department of Forest Management, Dendrometry and Forest Economics, Institute of Forest Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW;General Directorate of the State Forests;Forest Fire Protection Laboratory, Forest Research Institute;Chair of Forest Protection, University of Belgrade Faculty of Forestry;Department of Forest Protection and Wildlife Management, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University

关键词: Forest Fires;    Logistic Regression;    Variables Selection;    Anthropogenic Factors;   

DOI  :  10.3832/ifor4052-015

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Societa Italiana di Selvicoltura ed Ecologia Forestale (S I S E F)

【 摘 要 】

Climate is one of the main causes of forest fires in Europe. In addition, forest fires are influenced by other factors, such as the reconstruction of tree stands with a uniform species composition and increasing human pressure. At the same time, the increasing number of fires is accompanied by a steady increase in the number and quality of spatial information collected, which affects the ability to conduct more accurate studies of forest fires. The appropriate use of spatial information systems (GIS) together with all the collected information on fires could provide new insights into their causes and, in further steps, allow the development of new, more accurate predictive models. The objectives of the study were: (i) to estimate the probability of fire occurrence in the period 2007-2016; (ii) to evaluate the performance of the developed model; (iii) to identify and quantify anthropogenic, topographic and stand factors affecting the probability of fire occurrence in forest areas in Poland. To achieve these objectives, a statistical model based on a logistic regression approach was built using the nationwide forest fire database for the period from 2007 to 2016. The information in the database was obtained from the Polish State Forest Information System (SILP). Then it was supplemented with spatial, topographic and socio-economic information from various spatial and statistical databases. The results showed that fire probability is significantly positively affected by population density and distance from buildings. In addition, the further the distance from roads and railways, watercourses and water objects or the edge of the forest, height above sea level, and steep slopes, the lower is the fire probability. Analysis of spatial, ecological and socio-economic factors provides new insights that contribute to a better understanding of fire occurrence in Poland.

【 授权许可】

Unknown