Evaluating multilevel resilience of Russian urban economies 2010–2019

Ecology and Society: a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability

article

Mikhail Rogov¹  Céline Rozenblat¹  Mehdi Bida¹  Shade T. Shutters³ 

[1] Institute of Geography and Sustainability, University of Lausanne;HSE University;Arizona State University School of Complex Adaptive Systems Tempe;Global Climate Forum

关键词: cities;    employment;    multilevel;    multinational firms;    panarchy;    resilience;    Russia;    system of cities;   

DOI  :  10.5751/ES-13691-270437

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Resilience Alliance Publications

【 摘 要 】

In this paper we examine the coevolution of individual cities and the city networks to which they belong, during aneconomic shock. We take an individual city and its city network to be the meso and macro levels, respectively, of a social-economicsystem. Focusing on the economic shocks felt by Russian cities in 2014 following the Ukrainian conflict, we demonstrate that the sameshock had different effects at the meso level (a city’s employment structure) and macro level (a city’s interfirm linkages to other cities,both national and international). To explain our findings, we draw on panarchy theory to propose a multilevel perspective of resiliencethrough the coevolution of adaptive cycles at the meso and macro levels of urban economies. To evaluate resilience at each level, wefirst operationalize the panarchy concept of connectedness using a previously developed metric called “tightness,” which quantifies theinterdependencies among economic activities. We next operationalize the panarchy concept of potential by measuring a city’s degreeof economic specialization. At the meso level, we find that larger cities suffered less employment loss than smaller cities during theshock and that by 2019 the structure of the meso level had largely returned to its 2010 structure. On the other hand, at the macro level,we found that the 2019 macro level structure changed considerably from 2010. Thus, we show that the meso level was disturbed butreturned to a previous state (engineering resilience) while the macro level transitioned to a new state (ecological resilience). Resultssuggest that policy makers would benefit from distinguishing between the meso and macro levels, enabling the development of multilevelurban policies to address future shocks.

【 授权许可】

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