Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems

Ecology and Society: a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability

article

Dustin L. Herrmann¹  Kirsten Schwarz²  Craig R. Allen³  David G. Angeler⁴  Tarsha Eason⁵  Ahjond Garmestani⁶ 

[1] Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California;Departments of Urban Planning and Environmental Health Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles;Center for Resilience in Agricultural Working Landscapes, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln;Swedish University of Agriculture Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment;U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling;U.S. Environmental Protection Agency;Utrecht University

关键词: adaptive management;    futures;    green infrastructure;    iterative scenarios;    scenario planning;    social-ecological systems;    structured learning;   

DOI  :  10.5751/ES-12706-260408

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Resilience Alliance Publications

【 摘 要 】

Managing social-ecological systems toward desirable regimes requires learning about the system being managed while preparing for many possible futures. Adaptive management (AM) and scenario planning (SP) are two systems management approaches that separately use learning to reduce uncertainties and employ planning to manage irreducible uncertainties, respectively. However, each of these approaches have limitations that confound management of social-ecological systems. Here, we introduce iterative scenarios (IS), a systems management approach that is a hybrid of the scopes and relationships to uncertainty and controllability of AM and SP that combines the "iterativeness" of AM and futures planning of SP. Iterative scenarios is appropriate for situations with high uncertainty about whether a management action will lead to intended outcomes, the desired benefits are numerous and cross-scale, and it is difficult to account for the social implications around the natural resource management options. The value of iterative scenarios is demonstrated by applying the approach to green infrastructure futures for a neighborhood in the city of Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., that had experienced long-term, systemic disinvestment. The Cleveland green infrastructure project was particularly well suited to the IS approach given that learning about environmental factors was necessary and achievable, but what would be socially desirable and possible was unknown. However, iterative scenarios is appropriate for many social-ecological systems where uncertainty is high as IS accommodates real-world complexity faced by management.

【 授权许可】

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