Multi-Output Variational Gaussian Process for Daily Forecasting of Hydrological Resources

Engineering Proceedings

article

Julián David Pastrana-Cortés¹  David Augusto Cardenas-Peña¹  Mauricio Holguín-Londoño¹  Germán Castellanos-Dominguez²  Álvaro Angel Orozco-Gutiérrez¹ 

[1] Automatic Research Group, Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira;Signal Processing and Recognition Group, Universidad Nacional de Colombia

关键词: streamflow contributions;    predictive distribution;    forecasting;    Gaussian process;    useful volume;   

DOI  :  10.3390/engproc2023039083

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Water resource forecasting plays a crucial role in managing hydrological reservoirs, supporting operational decisions ranging from the economy to energy. In recent years, machine learning-based models, including sequential models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have been widely employed to address this task. Despite the significant interest in forecasting hydrological series, weather’s nonlinear and stochastic nature hampers the development of accurate prediction models. This work proposes a Variational Gaussian Process-based forecasting methodology for multiple outputs, termed MOVGP, that provides a probabilistic framework to capture the prediction uncertainty. The case study focuses on the Useful Volume and the Streamflow Contributions from 23 reservoirs in Colombia. The results demonstrate that MOVGP models outperform classical LSTM and linear models in predicting several horizons, with the added advantage of offering a predictive distribution.

【 授权许可】

Unknown