Modelling of Leishmaniasis Infection Dynamics: A Comparative Time Series Analysis with VAR, VECM, Generalized Linear and Markov Switching Models

Engineering Proceedings

article

Fadoua Badaoui¹  Souad Bouhout²  Amine Amar³  Kenza Khomsi⁴ 

[1] GEAS3D Laboratory, National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics;Direction of Epidemiology and Disease Control ,(DELM), Ministry of Health;School of Science and Engineering, Al Akhawyn University;Independent Researcher

关键词: leishmaniasis dynamics;    generalized linear model (GLM);    Markov switching model (MSM);    meteorological data;    vector auto-regressive model (VAR);    vector error correction model (VECM);   

DOI  :  10.3390/engproc2023039038

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In this paper, we are interested in modeling the dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Errachidia province (Morocco), using epidemiologic data and the most notable climatic factors associated with leishmaniasis, namely humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and temperature. To achieve our objective, we compare the performance of three statistical models, namely the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, the Vector Error Correction model (VECM), and the Generalized Linear model (GLM), using different metrics. The modeling framework will be compared with the Markov Switching (MSM) approach.

【 授权许可】

Unknown