A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM 2.5 Estimation

Fire

article

David Melecio-Vázquez¹  Chris Lautenberger²  Ho Hsieh¹  Michael Amodeo¹  Jeremy R. Porter¹  Bradley Wilson¹  Mariah Pope¹  Evelyn Shu¹  Valentin Waeselynck⁴  Edward J. Kearns¹ 

[1] First Street Foundation;Reax Engineering Inc., 1921 University Avenue;Department of Sociology and Demography, City University of New York Graduate Center;Spatial Informatics Group

关键词: fire behavior model;    smoke transport model;    dispersion;    air quality;    particulate matter;    fire emissions;   

DOI  :  10.3390/fire6060220

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Accurate representation of fire emissions and smoke transport is crucial for current and future wildfire-smoke projections. We present a flexible modeling framework for emissions sourced from the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to provide a national map for near-surface smoke conditions exceeding the threshold for unhealthy concentrations of particulate matter at or less than 2.5 µm, or PM2.5. Smoke yield from simulated fires is converted to emissions transported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s HYSPLIT model. We present a strategy for sampling from a simulation of ~65 million individual fires, to depict the occurrence of “unhealthy smoke days” defined as 24-h average PM2.5 concentration greater than 35.4 µg/m3 from HYSPLIT. The comparison with historical smoke simulations finds reasonable agreement using only a small subset of simulated fires. The total amount of PM2.5 mass-released threshold of 1015 µg was found to be effective for simulating the occurrence of unhealthy days without significant computational burden.

【 授权许可】

CC BY