Surface Wildfire Regime and Simulation-Based Wildfire Exposure in the Golestan National Park, NE Iran

Fire

article

Roghayeh Jahdi¹  Valentina Bacciu²  Michele Salis²  Liliana Del Giudice²  Artemi Cerdà³ 

[1] Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili;National Research Council of Italy, Institute of BioEconomy;Soil Erosion and Degradation Research Group, Department of Geography, Valencia University

关键词: burn probability;    kernel density estimation;    logistic regression model;    minimum travel time;    wildfire regime;   

DOI  :  10.3390/fire6060244

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

1% y−1, 35%) are all characteristics that contribute to high wildfire activity in shrublands. Similarly, areas predicted to have high wildfire exposure levels (average BP = 0.004; average CFL = 1.60 m; average FS = 840 ha) are found in the fuel models of high-load grass and medium-load shrub. Finally, the regression model results revealed that weather and fuel were the most influential parameters (R2 ≥ 0.2), while topography had comparatively less influence in the study area. In light of these results, we suggest proactively incorporating this information into fire and fuel management which can help develop a fire prevention plan, predict fire ignition probability and frequency, and finally address altered fire regimes threatening the park.

【 授权许可】

CC BY