Towards an Integrated Approach to Wildfire Risk Assessment: When, Where, What and How May the Landscapes Burn

Fire

article

Emilio Chuvieco¹  Marta Yebra²  Simone Martino⁴  Kirsten Thonicke⁵  Marta Gómez-Giménez⁶  Jesus San-Miguel⁷  Duarte Oom⁷  Ramona Velea⁸  Florent Mouillot⁹  Juan R. Molina^1,10  Ana I. Miranda^1,11  Diogo Lopes^1,11  Michele Salis^1,12  Marin Bugaric^1,13  Mikhail Sofiev^1,14  Evgeny Kadantsev^1,14  Ioannis Z. Gitas^1,15  Dimitris Stavrakoudis^1,15  George Eftychidis^1,15  Avi Bar-Massada^1,16  Alex Neidermeier^1,17  Valerio Pampanoni^1,18  M. Lucrecia Pettinari¹  Fatima Arrogante-Funes¹  Clara Ochoa¹  Bruno Moreira^1,19  Domingos Viegas^2,20 

[1] Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group, Department of Geology, Universidad de Alcalá;Fenner School of Environment & Society, College of Science, The Australian National University;School of Engineering, College of Engineering, Computing and Cybernetics, The Australian National University;The James Hutton Institute;Research Domain 1 “Earth System Analysis”, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;Remote Sensing & Geospatial Analytics;European Commission–Joint Research Centre;Institute of International Sociology of Gorizia;UMR 5175 CEFE, University de Montpellier;Forest Fire Laboratory, Department of Forest Engineering, Universidad de Córdoba, Edificio Leonardo da Vinci, Campus de Rabanales;Department of Environment and Planning, CESAM, University of Aveiro;Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council of Italy;Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Split;Finnish Meteorological Institute;Laboratory of Forest Management and Remote Sensing, School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki;Department of Biology and Environment, University of Haifa at Oranim;Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies ,(IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam;Earth Observation Satellite Images Applications Laboratory ,(EOSIAL), School of Aerospace Engineering, Sapienza University;Centro de Investigaciones Sobre Desertificación;Department of Mechanical Engineering, CEIF/ADAI, University of Coimbra

关键词: risk assessment;    danger;    exposure;    vulnerability;    risk reduction;    risk adaptation;    FirEUrisk;   

DOI  :  10.3390/fire6050215

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination of fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), the extent to which fire may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), and the potential losses and resilience to those losses (vulnerability). This is followed by a brief discussion of how these concepts can be integrated and connected to mitigation and adaptation efforts. We then review operational fire risk systems in place in various parts of the world. Finally, we propose an integrated fire risk system being developed under the FirEUrisk European project, as an example of how the different risk components (including danger, exposure and vulnerability) can be generated and combined into synthetic risk indices to provide a more comprehensive wildfire risk assessment, but also to consider where and on what variables reduction efforts should be stressed and to envisage policies to be better adapted to future fire regimes. Climate and socio-economic changes entail that wildfires are becoming even more a critical environmental hazard; extreme fires are observed in many areas of the world that regularly experience fire, yet fire activity is also increasing in areas where wildfires were previously rare. To mitigate the negative impacts of fire, those responsible for managing risk must leverage the information available through the risk assessment process, along with an improved understanding on how the various components of risk can be targeted to improve and optimize the many strategies for mitigation and adaptation to an increasing fire risk.

【 授权许可】

CC BY