The analysis of spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the multiyears 1981–2010

Journal of Water and Land Development

article

Antoni Grzywna¹  Andrzej Bochniak¹  Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek²  Joanna Krużel²  Krzysztof Jóźwiakowski¹  Andrzej Wałęga²  Agnieszka Cupak²  Agnieszka Mazur¹  Radomir Obroślak¹  Artur Serafin¹ 

[1] University of Life Science in Lublin, Faculty of Production Engineering;University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production Engineering

关键词: climate change;    kriging;    Poland;    precipitation;    spatial variability;    water resources;   

DOI  :  10.24425/jwld.2020.134202

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczego / Institute of Technology and Life Sciences

【 摘 要 】

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the years 1981–2010. The av-erage annual rainfall was 607 mm. Precipitation in Poland is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. The lowest annual precipitation was recorded in the central part of the country, where they equaled 500 mm. The highest annual precipitation totals were determined in the south, equaling 970 mm. The average precipitation in the summer half-year is 382 mm (63% of the annual total). On the basis of data from 53 climate stations, maps were made of the spatial distribution of precipitation for the period of the year and winter and summer half-year. The kriging method was used to map rainfall distribution in Poland. In the case study, cross-validation was used to compare the prediction performances of three periods. Kriging, with exponential type of semivariogram, gave the best performance in the statistical sense. Their application is justices especially in areas where landform is very complex. In accordance with the assumptions, the mean prediction error ( ME ), mean standardized prediction error ( MSE ), and root mean-square standardized prediction error ( RMSSE ) values are approximately zero, and root-mean-square prediction error ( RMSE ) and average standard error ( ASE ) reach values well below 100.

【 授权许可】

Unknown