IMPACT OF ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL RISKS ON TOURISM PERFORMANCE: A CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

Geo Journal of Tourism and Geosites

article

Paul-Francois MUZINDUTSI¹  Fikile DUBE²  Jean-Claude MANALIYO³ 

[1] University of KwaZulu-Natal, School of economics and Accounting, University Rd;University of KwaZulu Natal, School of economics and Accounting, University Rd;North-West University, School of Tourism Management, Albert Luthuli and University Drive

关键词: Economic risk;    financial risk;    political risk;    tourism revenue;    tourist arrivals;    ARDL;   

DOI  :  10.30892/gtg.38439-773

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Editura Universitatii din Oradea / University of Oradea Publishing House

【 摘 要 】

The contribution of tourism to a country’s economy is determined by country risk measures such as economic, financial and political risk. This study aimed to investigate short and long-run effects of country risk factors on international tourist arrivals and tourism revenue for the South African tourism industry. The sample period consists of monthly time series data of tourist arrivals, tourism revenue, and country risk factors from January 2004 to December 2018. Data was analysed using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models. The findings showed that the long-run effects of country risk factors on tourist arrivals and revenue are asymmetric. Economic, financial, and political measures of country risk negatively affect tourist arrivals, however, tourism revenue responds differently to changes in these risk factors. Political risk has the highest effect on the tourism industry compared to economic and financial risk factors. Overall, this study established that both international tourist arrivals and tourism revenue are threatened by financial shocks indicating that an unconducive financial environment has long-term negative implications on the South African tourism industry.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND