DEMOGRAPHIC MONITORING AND FORECASTING TOURISTS’ ARRIVALS AS A MEANS OF OVERCOMING SEASONALITY

Geo Journal of Tourism and Geosites

article

Aleksandra VUJKO¹  Tatiana N. TRETIAKOVA²  Dragana DIMITRIĆ³  Marko D. PETROVIĆ⁴  Milan RADOVANOVIĆ⁴  Darko VUKOVIĆ⁴ 

[1] Novi Sad Business School;South Ural State University, Institute of Sports;University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management;Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts;Department for Finance, St. Petersburg School of Economics and Management, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Kantemirovskaya ulitsa 3A, Office 331

关键词: Monitoring;    Tourism;    Ada Ciganlija Island;    Belgrade;    Serbia;   

DOI  :  10.30892/gtg.22221-308

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Editura Universitatii din Oradea / University of Oradea Publishing House

【 摘 要 】

Understanding the movement of tourists within a destination and predicting future movements have their practical applications for destination management, product development, marketing and attraction. We analyzed the seasonality of tourist presence in Belgrade, using the ARIMA models, with the aim of predicting future movement. We came to the result that about three-fourths of tourists in this area consist of domestic tourists or residents of Belgrade and people from other parts of Serbia, while the rest are foreign tourists. By increasing the number of foreign tourists there would be a significant economic development both for Ada Ciganlija Island and for Belgrade. This also points to the need for improving marketing and significantly engaging and making this area closer to foreign tourists.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND