Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Article

关键词: CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION;    GLOBAL CLIMATE SENSITIVITY;    EOCENE ATMOSPHERIC CO2;    LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM;    ANTARCTIC TEMPERATURE;    EARTHS TEMPERATURE;    GEOLOGICAL RECORD;    SEA-LEVEL;    FUTURE;    MODEL;   

DOI  :  10.1038/nature11574

来源: SCIE

【 摘 要 】

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW-1 m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

【 授权许可】

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