The scaling laws of human travel

Article

关键词: RANDOM-WALKS;    DISPERSAL;    EPIDEMICS;    DYNAMICS;    PATTERNS;   

DOI  :  10.1038/nature04292

来源: SCIE

【 摘 要 】

The dynamic spatial redistribution of individuals is a key driving force of various spatiotemporal phenomena on geographical scales. It can synchronize populations of interacting species, stabilize them, and diversify gene pools(1-3). Human travel, for example, is responsible for the geographical spread of human infectious disease(4-9). In the light of increasing international trade, intensified human mobility and the imminent threat of an influenza A epidemic(10), the knowledge of dynamical and statistical properties of human travel is of fundamental importance. Despite its crucial role, a quantitative assessment of these properties on geographical scales remains elusive, and the assumption that humans disperse diffusively still prevails in models. Here we report on a solid and quantitative assessment of human travelling statistics by analysing the circulation of bank notes in the United States. Using a comprehensive data set of over a million individual displacements, we find that dispersal is anomalous in two ways. First, the distribution of travelling distances decays as a power law, indicating that trajectories of bank notes are reminiscent of scale-free random walks known as Levy flights. Second, the probability of remaining in a small, spatially confined region for a time T is dominated by algebraically long tails that attenuate the superdiffusive spread. We show that human travelling behaviour can be described mathematically on many spatiotemporal scales by a two-parameter continuous-time random walk model to a surprising accuracy, and conclude that human travel on geographical scales is an ambivalent and effectively superdiffusive process.

【 授权许可】

Free