Possible future scenarios of the general health social security system in Colombia for the year 2033

European Journal of Futures Research

Research Article

Pedro Leon Cruz Aguilar¹  Javier Enrique Medina Vásquez² 

[1] Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Santiago de Cali, Calle 5 No. 62-00, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia;Facultad de Ciencias de la Administración, Universidad del Valle, Calle 4B # 36-00, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia;

关键词: Future scenarios;    Health system;    Primary health care and insurance;    Intuitive logic;    Stakeholder analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40309-022-00213-7

 received in 2022-02-28, accepted in 2022-12-15,  发布年份 2022

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

This article formulates possible future scenarios for the Colombian General Health and Social Security System (GHSSS) in 2033 when it reaches its 40th anniversary. The research draws on intuitive logic from the School of Human and Social Foresight (Masini, Penser le futur, 2000). The approach considers that in contexts of high instability and high conflict of interests, a combination of methods is required for the analysis of relevant transformations. It entails applying methods based on evidence, expertise, interaction, and creativity as discussed by Keenan and Popper (Foresight 10:16–36, 2008). Three scenarios are devised with the participation of real actors representing a plurality of visions from the public, private, academic, and social sectors. Finally, two future scenarios are featured, the one chosen by the experts before the triumph of the current government and the one that the Ministry of Health will present to the Colombian Congress for approval in 2023.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

【 图 表 】

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