Analysis of economic forecasting in the post-epidemic era: evidence from China

Scientific Reports

Article

Xin Li¹ 

[1] School of Mathematics and Statistics, Beijing Technology and Business University, 100048, Beijing, China;

DOI  :  10.1038/s41598-022-19011-z

 received in 2022-04-06, accepted in 2022-08-23,  发布年份 2022

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a predictive analysis of the Chinese economy in the post-epidemic era. Five major public health emergencies historically similar to the COVID-19 epidemic are used as the control group, and a fuzzy mathematical model is applied to forecast and analyze China’s economy after the COVID-19 epidemic. The forecast results show that China’s overall economy will have recovered to the pre-epidemic level in about 1 year, with the fastest recovery in individual economic indicators, followed by government final consumption and imports, then CPI, fiscal revenue, exports and money supply, and the slowest recovery in employment. Finally, a combination of all the parties makes policies and recommendations for China’s economic and social development in the post-epidemic era.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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