Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research

Xuxia Wang¹  Xiaohong Zhao¹  Yu Tian¹  Ruifen Li²  Jing An³  Li Su⁴  Xueyan Gu⁴  Rui Zhang⁴  Shuang Wang⁴  Yanjun Shi⁵ 

[1] Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Health Education, 730000, Lanzhou, China;Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Health Education, 730000, Lanzhou, China;School of Public Health, Institute of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, Lanzhou University, 730000, Lanzhou, China;Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Immunization Program, 730000, Lanzhou, China;School of Public Health, Institute of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, Lanzhou University, 730000, Lanzhou, China;School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, 730000, Lanzhou, China;

关键词: Japanese encephalitis;    CART;    Köppen–Geiger;    Climate conditions;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-023-08074-6

 received in 2022-07-21, accepted in 2023-02-10,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

This study evaluated epidemic temporal aspects of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and investigated the weather threshold of JE response across eight climate subtypes between 2005 and 2019 in Gansu Province, China. Epidemiological data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Three epidemic temporal indices [frequency index (α), duration index (β), and intensity index (γ)] were adopted for the comparison of epidemic features among different climate subtypes. In addition, the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) technique was used to detect the hot-spot areas. The category and regression tree (CART) model was used to detect the response threshold of weather variables in hot-spot areas across climate subtypes. Among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, in most hot-spot areas (i.e., high–high clusters), α, β, and γ were detected in the climate subtypes of subtropical winter dry (Cwa), temperate oceanic continental (Cwb), and continental winter dry (Dwa and Dwb). According to the CART analysis, a minimum monthly temperature is required for Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission, with different threshold values among the climatic subtypes. In temperate climate zones (Cwa and Cwb), this threshold is 19 °C at a 1-month lag. It is lower in continental winter dry climate zones: 18 °C in Dwa (snow climate, dry winter, and hot summer) and 16 °C in Dwb (snow climate, dry winter, and warm summer). Additionally, some areas of the areas with temperate arid (BWk and BSk) had the first JE cases. Further studies to detect whether the climate change influence the JEV’s distribution in Gansu Province are needed.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

【 图 表 】

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