Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries

BMC Public Health

Research

Orlando O. Harris¹  Carol S. Camlin²  Adrienne Epstein³  Sheri D. Weiser⁴  Tarik Benmarhnia⁵ 

[1] Department of Medicine, Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, University of California, San Francisco, USA;Department of Medicine, Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, University of California, San Francisco, USA;Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology & Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, USA;Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, L3 5QA, Liverpool, UK;Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, USA;Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA;Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science & Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA;

关键词: Droughts;    Rain;    Demography;    Africa South of the Sahara;    Migration;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z

 received in 2022-05-21, accepted in 2022-10-17,  发布年份 2022

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundPrecipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries by linking satellite data on precipitation to cross-sectional representative surveys.MethodsUsing data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2017, we estimated the associations between deviations in long-term rainfall trends and short-term mobility among 294,539 women and 136,415 men over 15 years of age. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential non-linear relationships between rainfall deviations and short-term mobility, adjusting for survey month and socio-demographic covariates, and stratified by participant gender. Furthermore, we assessed whether these associations differed by marital status.ResultsRainfall deviations were associated with short-term mobility among women, but not men. The relationship between rainfall deviations and mobility among women was U-shaped, such that women had increased marginal probabilities of mobility in instances of both lower and heavier precipitation. Differences between married and unmarried women were also revealed: among married women, we found positive associations between both rainfall deviation extremes (drought and heavy rains) and mobility; however, among unmarried women, there was only a positive association for heavy rains.ConclusionPrecipitation anomalies were associated with short-term mobility among women, which may be in turn associated with poor health outcomes. More research with longitudinal data is needed to elaborate the associations between weather shocks, mobility, and downstream health impacts.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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