The influence of meteorological factors and total malignant tumor health risk in Wuhu city in the context of climate change

BMC Public Health

Research

Ming Shao¹  Yubo Ma¹  Ye Wu¹  Shanshan Xu¹  Yuting Cheng¹  Lingxiang Yu¹  Faming Pan¹  Guoping Sun²  Zhipeng Pan²  Congjun Zhang²  Jiansheng Zhu³ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, 230032, Hefei, Anhui, China;The Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, 230032, Hefei, Anhui, China;Department of Medical Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, 230022, Hefei, Anhui, China;Wuhu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhu, Anhui Province, China;

关键词: All-malignant tumors;    Absolute humidity;    Climate change;    Short-term effect;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-023-15200-1

 received in 2022-11-03, accepted in 2023-02-02,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

With the increasing severity of the malignant tumors situation worldwide, the impacts of climate on them are receiving increasing attention. In this study, for the first time, all-malignant tumors were used as the dependent variable and absolute humidity (AH) was innovatively introduced into the independent variable to investigate the relationship between all-malignant tumors and meteorological factors. A total of 42,188 cases of malignant tumor deaths and meteorological factors in Wuhu City were collected over a 7-year (2014–2020) period. The analysis method combines distributed lagged nonlinear modeling (DLNM) as well as generalized additive modeling (GAM), with prior pre-analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results showed that AH, temperature mean (T mean) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) all increased the malignant tumors mortality risk. Exposure to low and exceedingly low AH increases the malignant tumors mortality risk with maximum RR values of 1.008 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.015, lag 3) and 1.016 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.032, lag 1), respectively. In addition, low and exceedingly low T mean exposures also increased the risk of malignant tumors mortality, the maximum RR was 1.020 (95% CI: 1.006, 1.034) for low T mean and 1.035 (95% CI: 1.014, 1.058) for exceedingly low T mean. As for DTR, all four levels (exceedingly low, low, high, exceedingly high, from low to high) of exposure increased the risk of death from malignant tumors, from exceedingly low to exceedingly high maximum RR values of 1.018 (95% CI: 1.004, 1.032), 1.011 (95% CI: 1.005, 1.017), 1.006 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.012) and 1.019 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.031), respectively. The results of the stratified analysis suggested that female appear to be more sensitive to humidity, while male require additional attention to reduce exposure to high level of DTR.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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