Development of a model for predicting hospital beds shortage and optimal policies using system dynamics approach

BMC Health Services Research

Research

Seyed Hosein Seyedi¹  Payam Shojaei²  Payam Farhadi³  Seyede Maryam Najibi⁴  Erfan Kharazmi⁴  Sajad Delavari⁴  Farhad Lotfi⁴  Zahra kavosi⁴ 

[1] Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran;Department of Management, Faculty of Economic, Management and Social Science, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran;Department of Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Zand Institute of Higher Education, Shiraz, Iran;Health Human Resources Research Center, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran;

关键词: System dynamic;    Hospital beds;    Policy;    Simulation;    Modeling;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12913-022-08936-w

 received in 2022-05-25, accepted in 2022-12-06,  发布年份 2022

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundPolicymakers use simulation-based models to improve system feedback and model the reality of the problems in the system. This study uses the system dynamics approach to provide a model for predicting hospital bed shortages and determine the optimal policy in Shiraz, Southern Iran.MethodsThis study was designed based on Sterman's system dynamic modeling (SDM) process. Firstly, we determined the main variables affecting bed distribution using a mixed qualitative and quantitative study which includes scoping review, expert panel, Delphi, and DANP. Then, dynamic hypotheses were designed. Subsequently, we held several expert panels for designing the causal and stock-flow models, formulating and testing a simulation model, as well as developing various scenarios and policies.ResultsDynamic modeling process resulted in four scenarios. All of the scenarios predicted a shortage of national hospital beds over a 20-year time horizon. Then, four policies were developed based on the changes in the number of beds and capacity of home care services; finally, the optimal policy was determined.ConclusionsDue to the high cost of setting up hospital beds, developing and supporting cost-effective home care services, strengthening the insurance coverage of these services, and improving the quantity and quality of community care, considering the real needs of the community could be considered as an optimal option for the future of the city.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2022

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