Improving predation risk modelling: prey-specific models matter

Hystrix, the Italian Journal of Mammalogy

article

Pietro Milanesi¹  Felice Puopolo²  Elena Fabbri³  Irene Gambini⁴  Federica Dotti⁵  Umberto Sergiacomi⁶  Maria Luisa Zanni⁵  Romolo Caniglia³ 

[1] Swiss Ornithological Institute – Vogelwarte;Department of Biology, University of Naples;Unit for Conservation Genetics ,(BIO-CGE), Department for the Monitoring and Protection of the Environment and for Biodiversity Conservation, Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research;Department of Architecture and Design, Sapienza University of Rome;Regione Emilia-Romagna;Regione Umbria, Servizio Programmazione Faunistica Venatoria

关键词: Canis lupus;    human-wildlife conflicts;    large carnivores;    livestock predation;    predator-prey interaction;    species distribution models;   

DOI  :  10.4404/hystrix-00248-2019

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Associazione Teriologica Italiana

【 摘 要 】

Globally, large carnivore livestock predations are major causes of conflicts with humans, thus identifying hotspots of carnivore attacks is fundamental to reduce the impact of these, and hence promote coexistence with humans. Species distribution models combining predictor variables withlocations of predation events instead of species occurrences (also known as predation risk models)are increasingly used to predict livestock depredation by carnivores, but they are often developedpooling attacks on different livestock species.We identified the main factors related to predation risk on livestock using an extensive dataset of4604 locations of verified wolf predation events on livestock collected in northern and central Italyduring 2008–2015 and assessed the importance of pooling versus splitting predation events by preyspecies.We found the best predictors of predation events varied by prey species. Specifically, predationrisk increased with altitude especially for cattle, with grasslands especially for cattle and sheep andwith distance to human settlements, especially for goats and livestock but only slightly for cattleand sheep. However, predation risk decreased as human population density, human settlements andartificial night-time light brightness increased, especially for cattle. Finally, livestock density waspositively related to predation risk when herd exceeds 500 heads for km2. Moreover, prey-specificrisk models are better tools to predict wolf predation risk on domestic ungulates.We believe that our approach can be applied worldwide on different predator-prey systems andlandscapes to promote human-carnivore coexistence. Actually, while pooling predation eventscould be primarily used by managers and personnel of wildlife agencies/offices in developing general policies, splitting predation events by prey species could be used at farm-level to better identify livestock owners at risk in high-priority areas and which prevention tools and deterrents (e.g.electric fences, guarding dogs, predator-proof enclosures) should be applied, as the most effectivemeasures differ by species.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC