Impacto das mudanças climáticas e da qualidade do ar em hospitalizações por doenças respiratórias em municípios da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP), Brasil

Ciencia e Saude Coletiva

article

Vassari-Pereira, Danilo¹  Valverde, María Cleofé¹  Asmus, Gabriela Farias¹ 

[1] Universidade Federal do ABC

关键词: Climate change;    Respiratory diseases;    Air pollutants;    Environmental health;    Multiple linear regression;   

DOI  :  10.1590/1413-81232022275.08632021

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Associacao Brasileira de Pos - Graduacao em Saude Coletiva

【 摘 要 】

The scope of this study was to analyze the possible impacts of climate change on respiratory health in the municipalities of Santo André and São Caetano do Sul. Historical meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure), air quality data (concentrations of PM10 and O3) and respiratory health data (incidence rates of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases - IRHRD) were related through statistical models of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Meteorological data from future climate projections (2019-2099) from three different climate models (one global and two regionalized) in two emission scenarios were applied to the MLR models. The results showed that the IRHRD will suffer an increase of up to 10% in relation to the current levels for São Caetano do Sul in the 2070-2099 period. In Santo André, projections indicated a reduction of up to 26% in IRHRD. The most important variable in the MLR models for Santo André was temperature (-2,15x), indicating an inverse relationship between global warming and an increase in IRHRD, while in São Caetano the atmospheric pressure had the greatest weight (2.44x). For future studies, the inclusion of future projections of PM10 concentrations is recommended.

【 授权许可】

CC BY