Economic Uncertainty and its Effects in Bolivia

Asian Economic and Financial Review

article

Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero¹  Marco Alberto Nunez Ramirez²  Irma Guadalupe Esparza Garcia²  Altayra Geraldine Ozuna Beltran³ 

[1] Department of Economics, Gabriel Rene Moreno Autonomous University;Department of Management, Sonora Institute of Technology;Department of Management, University of Sonora

关键词: Uncertainty;    Shocks;    Channel transmission;    Classification methods;    SVAR;    Bolivia.;   

DOI  :  10.55493/5002.v12i9.4607

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Asian Economic and Social Society

【 摘 要 】

The paper's primary finding reveals that there are three factors related to the level of Bolivian economic uncertainty. These were interpreted as: i) uncertainty of economic expectations; ii) uncertainty of monetary and exchange rate policy; iii) political and social uncertainty. The contribution of each factor was found to account for approximately one-third of the total uncertainty; however, due to the incidence of the searches, the uncertainty factor in the monetary exchange rate policy showed greater contemporaneous synchronization with the general level by using multivariate techniques monthly for the period from January 2004 to December 2020. The estimated index captured negative variations for uncertainty during times of economic boom and growth, and it reflected positive variations of uncertainty in times of economic slowdown, low commodity prices, persistent fiscal and external deficits, as well as drops in net international reserves. Finally, by estimating a structural VAR model (SVAR), a direct relationship was found between global (external) economic uncertainty and domestic (internal) economic uncertainty, which slows national economic activity by -0.65%, interpreted as a retarding factor for economic growth.

【 授权许可】

CC BY