From Spring to Winter? An Analysis of "Arab Spring" Impacts on Turkey and Mena Region Foreign Trade with Gravity Approach

Asian Economic and Financial Review

article

Mustafa Kahveci¹ 

[1] Faculty of Political Sciences, Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Section of Public Finance, Istanbul University

关键词: Gravity model;    Foreign trade;    Arab spring;    Trade state;    Turkey and MENA trade;    Foreign policy shift.;   

DOI  :  10.18488/journal.aefr.2019.912.1320.1334

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Asian Economic and Social Society

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzed the foreign policy adjustment in Turkey’s current ruling party government period, and the impacts of Arab Spring on the Turkey-MENA region trade. For this purpose, Tinbergen’s Gravity Model that is regarded as the workhorse of the empirical international trade model was run by augmenting it with foreign policy adjustment dummies (political shift and Arab Spring), political violence, corruption, free trade agreements, regional and trade agreements. With these policy dummies, we analyzed the impacts of Turkish foreign policy adjustment tools on Turkey and MENA region trade. Estimation results showed that the increase in political connections and concentration in the MENA region had positive impacts on Turkey and MENA regional trade. In contrast to this, the post- Arab Spring period had negative impacts on trade. Empirical results showed that soft power tools for policy activism such as visa liberalization programs, free trade agreements, preferential trade agreements, high-level economic corporation councils had positive impacts on bilateral trade. But coercive policies and being part of regional conflict had negative impacts on bilateral trade.

【 授权许可】

CC BY