Complex Effects of Telecouplings on Forest Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Earth Interactions

article

Hongbo Yang¹  Arika Ligmann-Zielinska⁵  Yue Dou⁶  Min Gon Chung³  Jindong Zhang⁴  Jianguo Liu³ 

[1] State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences;Global Development Policy Center, Boston University;Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University;Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation, China West Normal University, Nanchong, Sichuan Province;Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University;Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation ,(ITC), University of Twente

关键词: Social Science;    Asia;    Teleconnections;    Coupled models;    Deforestation;   

DOI  :  10.1175/EI-D-20-0029.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

Rural areas are increasingly subject to the effects of telecouplings (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances) whereby their human and natural dynamics are linked to socioeconomic and environmental drivers operating far away, such as the growing demand for labor and ecosystem services in cities. Although there have been many studies evaluating the effects of telecouplings, telecouplings in those studies were often investigated separately, and how telecouplings may interact and affect dynamics of rural coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) jointly was rarely evaluated. In this study, we developed an agent-based model and simulated the impacts of two globally common telecouplings, nature-based tourism and labor migration, on forest dynamics of a rural CHANS, China’s Wolong Nature Reserve (Wolong). Nature-based tourism and labor migration can facilitate forest recovery, and the predicted forest areas in Wolong in 2030 would be reduced by 26.2 km 2 (6.8%) and 23.9 km 2 (6.2%), respectively, without their effects. However, tourism development can significantly reduce the probability of local households to have member(s) outmigrate to work in cities and decrease the positive impact of labor migration on forest recovery. Our simulations show that the interaction between tourism and labor migration can reduce the potential forest recovery by 3.5 km 2 (5.0%) in 2030. Our study highlights that interactions among different telecouplings can generate significant impacts on socioeconomic and environmental outcomes and should be jointly considered in the design, management, and evaluation of telecouplings for achieving sustainable development goals.

【 授权许可】

Unknown