Temperature change analysis in Viçosa-MG through time series

Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences

article

Maurício Silva Lacerda ; Alex da Silva Temoteo ; Eduardo Campana Barbosa ; Helgem de Souza Ribeiro Martins ; Paulo César Emiliano

关键词: SARIMA;    ARCH;    Prediction;    Global warming;   

DOI  :  10.22587/ajbas.2022.16.1.1

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: AENSI

【 摘 要 】

The theme of global warming came into evidence at the end of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st century and is a recurrent theme of research, debates and studies around the world. Thus, the main objective of this work is to analyze the behavior of monthly averages of maximum and minimum temperatures in Viçosa-MG, with the interest of verifying if this region, with interior characteristics and with a good part of preserved biodiversity, also suffers from warming temperatures like the larger cities. Furthermore, it is desired to make a temperature forecast for the following year with the secondary objective of testing the quality of the model for this purpose. For that, the Box and Jenkins methodology was used to model the historical series through the SARIMA models, and for the variance, a model of the GARCH class was adjusted, which was shown to be necessary for the minimum temperature series, as it presents heterogeneous variance. It was found that Viçosa's region has been suffering impacts similar to the rest of the world, with one °C warming in the maximum temperature historical series and an increase above 1.5 °C in the minimum temperature in the last 50 years of data records, there is an even more accentuated increase in the last 20 years of the series. Therefore, this study can contribute a lot, as it shows that smaller cities, although it does not have nearby industries, are also suffering from climatic variations and that better city and regional planning will be needed to deal with the consequences imposed by global warming.

【 授权许可】

Unknown