The impact of meteorological factors on COVID-19 of California and its lag effect

Meteorological applications

article

Haitao Wei¹  Shihao Liu¹  Yan Liu¹  Bang Liu¹  Xiyun Gong⁷ 

[1] The School of the Geo-Science & Technology, Zhengzhou University;Joint Laboratory of Eco-Meteorology, Zhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou University;Contribution: Conceptualization;Contribution: Formal analysis;Contribution: Supervision;Contribution: ​Investigation;The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University

关键词: California;    COVID-19;    distributed lag non-linear model;    Geodetector;    meteorological factors;    partial correlation analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.2045

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

As of March 30, 2021, COVID-19 has been circulating globally for more than 1 year, posing a huge threat to the safety of human life and property. Understanding the relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 can provide positive help for the prevention and control of the global epidemic. We take California as the research object, use Geodetector to screen out the meteorological factors with the strongest explanatory power for the epidemic, then use partial correlation analysis to study the correlation between the two, and finally construct a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to further explore the relationship between the dominant factor and COVID-19 and its lag effect. It turns out that temperature has a greater impact on COVID-19 and the two have a significant negative correlation. When the temperature is lower than 50°F, it has a significant promotion effect on the epidemic, and the relative risk (RR) increases approximately exponentially as the temperature decreases. The delayed effect of the cold effect on the epidemic can be as long as 15 days. This study has shown that more attention should be paid to epidemic prevention and control when the temperature is low, and the delay effect of temperature on the spread of the epidemic cannot be ignored.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND