Development and Validation of a Risk Score in Chinese Patients With Chronic Heart Failure

Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine

article

Maoning Lin¹  Jiachen Zhan¹  Yi Luan¹  Duanbin Li¹  Yu Shan¹  Tian Xu¹  Guosheng Fu¹  Wenbin Zhang¹  Min Wang¹ 

[1] Department of Cardiovascular Diseases, College of Medicine, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University;Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Intervention and Regenerative Medicine of Zhejiang Province;Department of Cardiology, Zhuji People’s Hospital

关键词: heart failure;    N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide;    risk score;    severity classification;    major adverse cardiovascular events;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fcvm.2022.865843

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Background Acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure contributes to substantial increases in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The study developed a risk score to evaluate the severity of heart failure which was related to the risk of MACE. Methods This single-center retrospective observational study included 5,777 patients with heart failure. A credible random split-sample method was used to divide data into training and validation dataset (split ratio = 0.7:0.3). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) logistic regression was applied to select predictors and develop the risk score to predict the severity category of heart failure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and calibration curves were used to assess the model’s discrimination and accuracy. Results Body-mass index (BMI), ejection fraction (EF), serum creatinine, hemoglobin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were identified as predictors and assembled into the risk score ( P 0.05). As the severity of heart failure worsened according to risk score, the incidence of MACE, length of hospital stay, and treatment cost increased ( P < 0.001). Conclusion A risk score incorporating BMI, EF, serum creatinine, hemoglobin, CRP, and NLR, was developed and validated. It effectively evaluated individuals’ severity classification of heart failure, closely related to MACE.

【 授权许可】

CC BY