A Visualized Dynamic Prediction Model for Overall Survival in Elderly Patients With Pancreatic Cancer for Smart Medical Services

Frontiers in Public Health

article

Jiang Zhong¹  XingShu Liao¹  Shuang Peng²  Junyi Cao³  Yue Liu⁴  Chunyang Liu⁵  Ju Qiu⁵  Xiaoyan Guan⁴  Yang Zhang⁶  Xiaozhu Liu⁷  Shengxian Peng⁵ 

[1] College of Computer Science, Chongqing University;General Affairs Section, The People's Hospital of Tongnan District;Department of Medical Quality Control, First People's Hospital of Zigong City;Department of Pediatrics, First People's Hospital of Zigong City;Scientific Research Department, First People's Hospital of Zigong City;College of Medical Information, Chongqing Medical University;Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University

关键词: nomogram;    elderly patients;    pancreatic cancer;    SEER database;    online application;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2022.885624

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Background Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a highly malignant tumor of the digestive system. The number of elderly patients with PC is increasing, and older age is related to a worse prognosis. Accurate prognostication is crucial in treatment decisions made for people diagnosed with PC. However, an accurate predictive model for the prognosis of these patients is still lacking. We aimed to construct nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with PC. Methods Patients with PC, older than 65 years old from 2010 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, were selected and randomly divided into training cohort ( n = 4,586) and validation cohort ( n = 1,966). Data of patients in 2016–2018 ( n = 1,761) were used for external validation. Univariable and forward stepwise multivariable Cox analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factors. We used significant variables in the training set to construct nomograms predicting prognosis. The performance of the models was evaluated for their discrimination and calibration power based on the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Age, insurance, grade, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, T, N, and American Joint Commission on Cancer were independent predictors for OS and thus were included in our nomogram. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the C-indices of our nomogram were 0.725 (95%CI: 0.715–0.735) and 0.711 (95%CI: 0.695–0.727), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year areas under receiver operating characteristic curves showed similar results. The calibration curves showed a high consensus between observations and predictions. In the external validation cohort, C-index (0.797, 95%CI: 0.778–0.816) and calibration curves also revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. The nomogram-related DCA curves showed better clinical utility compared to tumor-node-metastasis staging. In addition, we have developed an online prediction tool for OS. Conclusions A web-based prediction model for OS in elderly patients with PC was constructed and validated, which may be useful for prognostic assessment, treatment strategy selection, and follow-up management of these patients.

【 授权许可】

CC BY