How accurate are radiography and computed tomography in the diagnosis of COVID-19?—A Bayesian approach

Acta Radiologica Open

Original Article

Mauricio Canals¹  Andrea Canals² 

[1]Escuela de Salud Pública, , Santiago, Chile

[2]Departamento de Medicina (O), , Santiago, Chile

[3]Servicio de Radiología, , Santiago, Chile

[4]Escuela de Salud Pública, , Santiago, Chile

[5]Dirennción de Investigación, , Santiago, Chile

关键词: Chest X-ray;    chest computed tomography;    COVID-19;    Bayes;    sensitivity;    specificity;   

DOI  :  10.1177/20584601221142256

 received in 2022-02-24, accepted in 2022-11-14,  发布年份 2022

来源: Sage Journals

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe role of radiology in patients with clinical suspicion of COVID-19 is evolving with scientific evidence, but there are differences in opinion on when and how the technique should be used for clinical diagnosis.PurposeTo estimate the pre-test and post-test probability that a patient has COVID-19 in the event of a positive and/or negative result from chest X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT) radiological studies, comparing with those of real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests.MethodsThe literature on the sensitivity and specificity of the chest X-ray, chest CT, and RT-PCR was reviewed. Based on these reported data, the likelihood ratios (LR) were estimated and the pre-test probabilities were related to the post-test probabilities after positive or negative results.ResultsThe chest X-ray has only a confirmatory value in cases of high suspicion. Chest CT analyses showed that when it is used as a general study, it has almost confirmatory value under high clinical suspicion. A chest CT classified with CO-RADS ≥ 4 has almost a diagnostic certainty of COVID-19 even with moderate or low clinical presumptions, and the CO-RADS 5 classification is almost pathognomonic before any clinical presumption. To rule out COVID-19 completely is only possible in very low clinical assumptions with negative RT-PCR and/or CT.ConclusionsChest X-ray and especially CT are fast studies that have the capacity to report high probability of COVID-19, being a real contribution to the concept of “probable case” and allowing support to be installed in an early and timely manner.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC   
© The Author(s) 2022

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