Changes in seasonality and magnitude of sub-daily rainfall extremes in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) and potential influence on regional rainfall frequency estimation

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

A. Domeneghetti¹  E. Ferri²  V. Pavan³  G. Antolini⁴  S. Persiano⁴  A. Castellarin⁴ 

[1] ARPAE-SIMC Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy;Corresponding author.;ARPAE-SIMC Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy;Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering (DICAM), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy;

关键词: Climate change;    Annual maximum series;    Mean annual precipitation;    Circular statistics;    Design storm;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Study region: The present study focuses on Emilia-Romagna (northern Italy), a densely populated region affected in the last few years by several destructive flood events. Study focus: A rich and detailed regional dataset of annual maximum series (AMS) of sub-daily rainfall is considered with a three-fold aim: to detect possible changes in (1) seasonality and (2) magnitude of sub-daily rainfall extremes, (3) to assess the current reliability and accuracy of a previously developed regional model for rainfall frequency estimation based on the local value of mean annual precipitation (MAP). New hydrological insights for the region: The main findings of the study include: (1) delay (towards Autumn) in the mean timing of sub-daily rainfall extremes, more marked for higher elevations and longer durations; (2) significant increase in the magnitude of sub-daily extreme events for some areas, especially in the Apennine; (3) high sensitivity of the regional predictions of the frequency regime of sub-daily rainfall extremes to local changes in AMS and MAP.

【 授权许可】

Unknown