Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

eLife

Kamran Khan¹  Sumiko R Mekaru²  Catherine L Moyes³  Simon I Hay⁴  John S Brownstein⁵  Andrew J Tatem⁶  Isaac I Bogoch⁷  Peter W Horby⁸  David L Smith⁸  David M Pigott⁸  Moritz UG Kraemer⁸  Peter W Gething⁸  Samir Bhatt⁸  Oliver J Brady⁸  Daniel J Weiss⁸  Zhi Huang⁸  Andrew J Henry⁸  Adrian Mylne⁸  Nick Golding⁸ 

[1] Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States;Divisions of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Toronto, Canada;Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, United States;Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States;Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada;Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States;Epidemic Diseases Research Group, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom;Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom;

关键词: Ebola;    species distribution modelling;    boosted regression tree;    disease mapping;    Ebola virus;    niche based modelling;   

DOI  :  10.7554/eLife.04395

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.

【 授权许可】

Unknown