Applications of Radar Data Assimilation with Hydrometeor Control Variables within the WRFDA on the Prediction of Landfalling Hurricane IKE (2008)

Atmosphere

Danhua Zhai¹  Aiqing Shu²  Feifei Shen²  Jinzhong Min²  Lixin Song²  Dongmei Xu²  Yakai Guo²  Hong Li³ 

[1] Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing 401147, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;

关键词: control variables;    data assimilation;    Doppler weather radar;    tropical cyclone;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos12070853

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The impact of assimilating radar radial velocity and reflectivity on the analyses and forecast of Hurricane IKE is investigated within the framework of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system, including the hydrometeor control variables. Hurricane IKE in the year 2008 was chosen as the study case. It was found that assimilating radar data is able to effectively improve the small-scale information of the hurricane vortex area in the model background. Radar data assimilation experiments yield significant cyclonic wind increments in the inner-core area of the hurricane, enhancing the intensity of the hurricane in the model background. On the other hand, by extending the traditional control variables to include the hydrometeor control variables, the assimilation of radar reflectivity can effectively adjust the water vapor and hydrometeors of the background, further improving the track and intensity forecast of the hurricane. The precipitation forecast skill is also enhanced to some extent with the radar data assimilation, especially with the extended hydrometeor control variables.

【 授权许可】

Unknown