Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

Emerging Infectious Diseases

关键词: Bioterrorism;    Bayesian Analysis;    Bayesian Forecast;    surveillance;    anthrax;    perspective;   

DOI  :  10.3201/eid1007.030632

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet.

【 授权许可】

Unknown