Hybrid Model for Unemployment Impact on Social Life

Mathematics

Constantin-Cristian Dinu¹  Irina-Valentina Tudor¹  Daniela Dănciulescu¹  Claudiu-Ionuţ Popîrlan¹  Gabriel Stoian¹  Cristina Popîrlan¹ 

[1] Computer Science Department, Faculty of Sciences, University of Craiova, A.I. Cuza Street, No. 13, 200585 Craiova, Romania;

关键词: hybrid model;    ARIMA model;    linear regression model;    unemployment;    social life;    life satisfaction;   

DOI  :  10.3390/math9182278

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In this paper, we want to examine how unemployment impacts social life, and, by using datasets from six European countries, we analyze the effect of unemployment on two of the main aspects of social life: social exclusion and life satisfaction. First, we predict unemployment rates using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the results are further used in a linear regression model alongside social exclusion and life satisfaction data, thus obtaining the hybrid model. With the help of the point prediction method, we use the hybrid model to predict new values for the two aspects of social life for the upcoming three years and we analyze the results obtained in order to better understand their interconnection. The results suggest that unemployment has particularly adverse effects on the subjective perception of life satisfaction, furthermore increasing the social exclusion percentage.

【 授权许可】

Unknown