Forecasting Variations in Profitability and Silviculture under Climate Change of Radiata Pine Plantations through Differentiable Optimization

Forests

Miguel A. González-Rodríguez¹  Miguel E. Vázquez-Méndez²  Ulises Diéguez-Aranda³ 

[1] CERNA Ingeniería y Asesoría Medioambental S.L., R/Illas Cíes n° 52-54-56, Ground Floor, 27003 Lugo, Spain;Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, Instituto de Matemáticas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Escola Politécnica Superior de Enxeñaría, R/Benigno Ledo, Campus Terra, 27002 Lugo, Spain;Unidade de Xestión Ambiental e Forestal Sostible, Departamento de Enxeñaría Agroforestal, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Escola Politécnica Superior de Enxeñaría, R/Benigno Ledo, Campus Terra, 27002 Lugo, Spain;

关键词: differentiable optimization;    Pinus radiata;    stand-level management;    climate change;    risk modelling;   

DOI  :  10.3390/f12070899

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Climate change might entail significant alterations in future forest productivity, profitability and management. In this work, we estimated the financial profitability (Soil Expectation Value, SEV) of a set of radiata pine plantations in the northwest of Spain under climate change. We optimized silvicultural interventions using a differentiable approach and projected future productivity using a machine learning model basing on the climatic predictions of 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The forecasted mean SEV for future climate was lower than current SEV (∼22% lower for RCP 4.5 and ∼29% for RCP 6.0, with interest rate = 3%). The dispersion of the future SEV distribution was very high, alternatively forecasting increases and decreases in profitability under climate change depending on the chosen GCM. Silvicultural optimization considering future productivity projections effectively mitigated the potential economic losses due to climate change; however, its ability to perform this mitigation was strongly dependent on interest rates. We conclude that the financial profitability of radiata pine plantations in this region might be significantly reduced under climate change, though further research is necessary for clearing the uncertainties regarding the high dispersion of profitability projections.

【 授权许可】

Unknown