Managing slow-moving item: a zero-inflated truncated normal approach for modeling demand

PeerJ Computer Science

Peter Wanke¹  Juan Vega-Vargas²  Giuliani Coluccio²  Gonzalo F. Huerta-Canepa³  Fernando Rojas⁴ 

[1] COPPEAD, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de Tarapacá, Arica, Chile;Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Viña del Mar, Chile;Micro-BioInnovation Center, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile;

关键词: Demand during lead time;    Inventory models;    Zero-inflated truncated normal statistical distribution;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj-cs.298

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This paper proposes a slow-moving management method for a system using of intermittent demand per unit time and lead time demand of items in service enterprise inventory models. Our method uses zero-inflated truncated normal statistical distribution, which makes it possible to model intermittent demand per unit time using mixed statistical distribution. We conducted numerical experiments based on an algorithm used to forecast intermittent demand over fixed lead time to show that our proposed distributions improved the performance of the continuous review inventory model with shortages. We evaluated multi-criteria elements (total cost, fill-rate, shortage of quantity per cycle, and the adequacy of the statistical distribution of the lead time demand) for decision analysis using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). We confirmed that our method improved the performance of the inventory model in comparison to other commonly used approaches such as simple exponential smoothing and Croston’s method. We found an interesting association between the intermittency of demand per unit of time, the square root of this same parameter and reorder point decisions, that could be explained using classical multiple linear regression model. We confirmed that the parameter of variability of the zero-inflated truncated normal statistical distribution used to model intermittent demand was positively related to the decision of reorder points. Our study examined a decision analysis using illustrative example. Our suggested approach is original, valuable, and, in the case of slow-moving item management for service companies, allows for the verification of decision-making using multiple criteria.

【 授权许可】

Unknown