Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Atmosphere

Ondřej Lhotka¹  Stefan Brönnimann² 

[1] Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic;Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;

关键词: spring frost;    climate change;    vegetation;    Switzerland;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos11040391

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

【 授权许可】

Unknown