Agent-Based Modeling of a Thermal Energy Transition in the Built Environment

Energies

Gijsbert Korevaar¹  Gracieladel Carmen Nava Guerrero¹  Zofia Lukszo¹  HelleHvid Hansen¹ 

[1] Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands;

关键词: built environment;    residential;    thermal;    technology;    insulation;    complex adaptive systems;    socio-technical systems;    ABM;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en12050856

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, an energy transition is taking place in the European Union. Achieving these targets requires changes in the heating and cooling sector (H&C). Designing and implementing this energy transition is not trivial, as technology, actors, and institutions interact in complex ways. We provide an illustrative example of the development and use of an agent-based model (ABM) for thermal energy transitions in the built environment, from the perspective of sociotechnical systems (STS) and complex adaptive systems (CAS). In our illustrative example, we studied the transition of a simplified residential neighborhood to heating without natural gas. We used the ABM to explore socioeconomic conditions that could support the neighborhoods’ transition over 20 years while meeting the neighborhoods’ heat demand. Our illustrative example showed that through the use of STS, CAS, and an ABM, we can account for technology, actors, institutions, and their interactions while designing for thermal energy transitions in the built environment.

【 授权许可】

Unknown