SCENARIO FORECASTING OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT ON THE BASIS OF ECONOMIC AGENTS EXPECTATIONS MODELLING: METHODICAL APPROACHES AND THEIR APPROBATION

Mir Èkonomiki i Upravleniâ

Elshin L. A.¹  Safiullin M. R.² 

[1] Center of Perspective Economic Researches AS RT;Kazan Federal University;

关键词: ожидания экономических агентов;    моделирование и прогнозирование;    кросскорреляционный анализ;    промышленное развитие;    сценарное программирование;    институциональные и конъюнктурные параметры развития;    expectations of economic agents;    modeling and forecasting;    cross-correlation analysis;    industrial development;    scenario programming;    institutional and tactical parameters of development;   

DOI  :  10.25205/2542-0429-2017-17-4-39-52

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The complexity and multidimensionality of the processes of social and economic development creates a basis for improvement of the traditional approaches to modeling and forecasting economic growth existing in theory. The main goal of the work is the creation of scenario and predictive models for the development of industrial production of the national economy based on an assessment of expectations of economic agents. Based on the carried-out cross-correlation analysis of the set of factors of institutional and tactical order influencing the aggregated trends of economic growth, parameters of their influence on the system of forming expectations of economic agents are identified. Using the methods of econometric analysis, the values of the subindexes that determine integral estimates of the indexes of advancing development (IAD), quantitatively assessing expectations of economic agents regarding the transformations in institutional and tactical environment in concentrated form, are determined. It allowed us to reveal the parameters of the multiple choice model characterizing interrelation between expectations and industrial development of the national economic system. Based on the results of the approbation of the presented approach, scenarios of the development of industrial production in the Russian Federation for the medium-term period (until 2020) are developed, taking into account the programming of individual institutional and tactical factors that generate the system of expectations of economic entities. It is established that high rates of industrial development that promote overcoming structural problems in economy can be formed, mainly, in case of realization of the institutional transformations creating a stable basis for generation of positive, steady expectations concerning the transformation of the existing mode forming the mechanisms of macroeconomic shifts. The main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used by the scientific community, as well as representatives of business and state bodies in developing forecasts of social and economic growth and justification of development mechanisms.

【 授权许可】

Unknown