Migration transition in Serbia: demographic perspective

Sociologija

关键词: migration flow;    Serbia;    probabilistic population projection;    population policy;   

DOI  :  10.2298/SOC1302187N

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

From the demographic point of view, the future of Serbia's population isrelatively certain at least in the next three to four decades. However, thedecreasing and ageing of the population are considered to be very certainprocesses in the much longer term. Although replacement fertility is anessential condition for long-term survival of any population, it is shownthat only an immigration impulse could enable desired effects of thepotential fertility recovery in Serbia in the longer perspective. Such amigration transition (from net emigration to net immigration) wouldinevitably lead to increased socio-cultural diversity and require thedevelopment of integration strategies. If successful, policies to stimulatean increase in net migration provide an almost instant result. Apart from oldimmigration countries from Western Europe, this was the case with newimmigration destinations located in Mediteranean and Central Europe,including some former socialist countries. When evaluating the future trendof international migration balance of Serbia, the experiences of the lattercountries is used. The population dynamics model created for the purpose ofthe paper is based upon the probabilistic concept of projecting vitalcomponents. The main conclusion is that there is no demographic alternativeto the migration transition in Serbia when it comes to sustainability of thesocial security systems in the coming decades, but the realization of such ascenario is still not clear from today's perspective, given the existinglimitations of the socio-economic nature.

【 授权许可】

Unknown