CMIP5 analysis of the interannual variability of the Pacific SST and its association with the Asian–Pacific oscillation

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Ying XU¹  Bo-Tao ZHOU¹ 

[1] China Meteorological Administration;

关键词: Interannual variability;    Pacific SST;    CMIP5;    evaluation;    projection;   

DOI  :  10.1080/16742834.2017.1260427

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This study analyzed the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific in the historical simulation and under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from 27 models archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Its association with the Asian–Pacific oscillation (APO) was also investigated. The evaluation results showed that the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) and most of the individual models perform well in reproducing the relatively stronger interannual variability of SST over the North Pacific and tropical eastern Pacific. They can also capture reasonably well the observed in-phase and out-of-phase relationships of the APO with the SST in the above two regions, respectively. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the interannual variability of the SST over the North Pacific and the tropical eastern Pacific is projected by the MME to be weakened during 2050–99 compared to 1950–99. The majority of the CMIP5 models show the same projection as the MME. Besides, the MME projection indicates that the present relationship between the APO and the SST over those two regions would still be dominant under both RCPs. However, considerable discrepancies exist in the changes of the relationships among the individual models.

【 授权许可】

Unknown