Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen dengan Metode Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) dan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA)

Mantik: Jurnal Matematika

Muhamad Budiman Johra¹  Deltha Airuzsh Lubis¹  Gumgum Darmawan¹ 

[1] Universitas Padjajaran, Bandung;

关键词: ARIMA, CPI, Seasonal, Singular Spectral Analysis;   

DOI  :  10.15642/mantik.2017.3.2.74-82

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Consumer Price Index (CPI) are the indicators used to measure the inflation and deflation of a group of goods and services in general. Forecasting CPI to be important as early detection in facing price hikes. This study uses the SSA and SARIMA. SARIMA a parametric model that requires various assumptions while SSA is a nonparametric technique that is free from a variety of assumptions, but both methods require seasonal patterns in the data. Based on the research results, methods of SSA with length window(L) of 24 and a grouping of 4 (1 group of seasonal and 3 groups of trends) and SARIMA models of order (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 is the most accurate and reliable models in forecasting CPI to the value Padang Sidempuan City. Forecasting CPI Padang Sidempuan City for the next 5 months with SSA method and SARIMA (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 shows the pattern of a trend is likely to increase but forecasting the 5th month with SSA method showed a surge in the value of CPI high or high inflation will occur.

【 授权许可】

Unknown