Development and application of traffic accident density estimation models using kernel density estimation

Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English ed. Online)

Syuji Yoshiki¹  Ryoko Saeki²  Seiji Hashimoto³  Shutaro Nanba³  Yasuhiro Mimura⁴  Ryosuke Ando⁵ 

[1] Department of Civil Engineering, Fukuoka University, Fukuoka 814-0180, Japan;Fukuyama Consultants Co. Ltd., Fukuoka 812-0013, Japan;Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University, Okayama 700-0807, Japan;International Development Consultants Co. Ltd., Aichi 460-0008, Japan;Toyota Transportation Research Institute, Aichi 471-0024, Japan;

关键词: Traffic safety;    Kernel density estimation (KDE);    Hotspots;    Zone 30;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtte.2016.01.005

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Traffic accident frequency has been decreasing in Japan in recent years. Nevertheless, many accidents still occur on residential roads. Area-wide traffic calming measures including Zone 30, which discourages traffic by setting a speed limit of 30 km/h in residential areas, have been implemented. However, no objective implementation method has been established. Development of a model for traffic accident density estimation explained by GIS data can enable the determination of dangerous areas objectively and easily, indicating where area-wide traffic calming can be implemented preferentially. This study examined the relations between traffic accidents and city characteristics, such as population, road factors, and spatial factors. A model was developed to estimate traffic accident density. Kernel density estimation (KDE) techniques were used to assess the relations efficiently. Besides, 16 models were developed by combining accident locations, accident types, and data types. By using them, the applicability of traffic accident density estimation models was examined. Results obtained using Spearman rank correlation show high coefficients between the predicted number and the actual number. The model can indicate the relative accident risk in cities. Results of this study can be used for objective determination of areas where area-wide traffic calming can be implemented preferentially, even if sufficient traffic accident data are not available.

【 授权许可】

Unknown