Basic Reproduction Number of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in the Major Endemic Areas of China: A Latent Profile Analysis

Frontiers in Public Health

Liya Ma¹  Wenwen Liu¹  Meng Liu¹  Hong Gan¹  Yi Zhang¹  Min Yuan³  Fangbiao Tao³  Honglv Xu⁴  Gillian Gianna Anne Lum⁵ 

[1] Department of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China;Key Laboratory of Population Health Across Life Cycle, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China;School of Health Service Management, Center for Big Data Science in Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China;School of Medicine, Kunming University, Kunming, China;The Colonial War Memorial Hospital, Suva, Fiji;

关键词: 2019 novel coronavirus disease;    basic reproduction number;    latent categories;    trends;    epidemiology;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2021.575315

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the latent class of basic reproduction number (R0) trends of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the major endemic areas of China.Methods: The provinces that reported more than 500 cases of COVID-19 till February 18, 2020 were selected as the major endemic areas. The Verhulst model was used to fit the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases. The R0 of COVID-19 was calculated using the parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID-19. The latent class of R0 was analyzed using the latent profile analysis (LPA) model.Results: The median R0 calculated from the SARS and COVID-19 parameters were 1.84–3.18 and 1.74–2.91, respectively. The R0 calculated from the SARS parameters was greater than that calculated from the COVID-19 parameters (Z = −4.782 to −4.623, p < 0.01). Both R0 can be divided into three latent classes. The initial value of R0 in class 1 (Shandong Province, Sichuan Province, and Chongqing Municipality) was relatively low and decreased slowly. The initial value of R0 in class 2 (Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province, and Jiangsu Province) was relatively high and decreased rapidly. Moreover, the initial R0 value of class 3 (Hubei Province) was in the range between that of classes 1 and 2, but the higher R0 level lasted longer and decreased slowly.Conclusion: The results indicated that the overall R0 trend is decreased with the strengthening of comprehensive prevention and control measures of China for COVID-19, however, there are regional differences.

【 授权许可】

Unknown