THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE SUPER CYCLE OF RAW MATERIALS AND THE INFLUENCE OF CHINA IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Revista Tempo do Mundo

Camila Moura Vogt¹  Juliana Carvalho Brandão² 

[1] Adjunct professor of economics at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA).PhD in economics from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul (PUC-RS) and master's in economics from the University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto (USP-RP).;Recently invited to the Postgraduation Program in Economics at UFPA, class of 2021, by the National Association of Postgraduation Centers in Economics (Anpec);

关键词: economic growth;    raw materials;    var;    ver;    super cycle;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.38116/rtm24art10

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

At the beginning of the 21st century, with an unprecedented increase in the prices of basic commodities exportable in Latin America, the role of China’s demand has increased in the interest of economic literature, since the end of this so-called “super cycle”, occurred in 2014. This article discusses the effects of this cyclical variation in the prices of minerals and food products on macroeconomic variables (GDP, investment, income and international reserves) in the Brazilian economy, with exposure to the international market – and, accordingly, the demand from China – is significant. The investigation of possible channels of contamination by varying prices, through cointegration problems and the causality of Engle-Granger and VAR/VEC models, suggested different intensities of the impacts of the Super Cycle through similar channels. There was a broadly balanced relationship between fiscal income and GDP in the Brazilian economy in relation to price changes, as well as in the Chilean economy. In Venezuela, in turn, the effects of the cycle were much more intense in their inflows and economic growth.

【 授权许可】

Unknown