Prognostic Scoring System for Mortality of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: A Multicenter Study from COVID-19 Referral Hospitals

Acta Medica Indonesiana

Kuntjoro Harimurti¹  Siti Setiati²  Lies Dina Liastuti³  Rahmi Istanti⁴  Muhammad K Azwar⁴  Respati W Ranakusuma⁴  Eka Dian Safitri⁴  Jessica Marsigit⁴  Siti Rizny F. Saldi⁵  Ratna Dwi Restuti⁶  Trimartani Trimartani⁶  Evy Yunihastuti⁷  Ari Fahrial Syam⁸  Cleopas Martin Rumende⁹  Mira Yulianti⁹  Adityo Susilo^1,10  Puji Astuti^1,11  Cut Yulia Indah Sari^1,12 

[1] 1. Division of Geriatric, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. 2. Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;1. Division of Geriatrics, Dept. of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia –Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia2. Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Department of Ear, Nose, and Throat, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Division of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Division of Tropical Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Pulmonologist, Cengkareng District Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia;Pulmonologist, Jakarta Islamic Hospital, Cempaka Putih, Jakarta, Indonesia;

关键词: covid-19;    prognostic;    predictive score;    mortality;    resource-limited settings;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Background: Many studies identified the risk factors and prognostic factors related to in-hospital COVID-19 mortality using sophisticated laboratory tests. Cost and the availability of supporting blood tests may be problematic in resource-limited settings. This multicenter cohort study was conducted to assess the factors associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients aged 18 years and older, based on history taking, physical examination, and simple blood tests to be used in resource-limited settings. Methods: The study was conducted between July 2020 and January 2021 in five COVID-19 referral hospitals in Indonesia. Among 1048 confirmed cases of COVID-19, 160 (15%) died during hospitalization. Results: Multivariate analysis showed eight predictors of in-hospital mortality, namely increased age, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, fatigue, dyspnea, altered mental status, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥ 5.8, and severe-critical condition. This scoring system had an Area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 84.7%. With cut-off score of 6, the sensitivity was 76.3% and the specificity was 78.2%. Conclusion: The result of this practical prognostic scoring system may be a guide to decision making of physicians and help in the education of family members related to the possible outcome.

【 授权许可】

Unknown