Long-Term Hydro–Climatic Trends in the Mountainous Kofarnihon River Basin in Central Asia

Water

Rashid Davlyatov¹  Safarkhon Sharofiddinov¹  Aminjon Gulakhmadov²  Xi Chen²  Manuchekhr Gulakhmadov²  Nekruz Gulahmadov³  Tie Liu³ 

[1] Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe 734042, Tajikistan;Research Center of Ecology and Environment in Central Asia, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;

关键词: temperature;    precipitation;    streamflow;    trends;    climate change;    Kofarnihon River Basin;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w12082140

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Hydro–climatic variables play an essential role in assessing the long-term changes in streamflow in the snow-fed and glacier-fed rivers that are extremely vulnerable to climatic variations in the alpine mountainous regions. The trend and magnitudinal changes of hydro–climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall, and Sen’s slope tests in the Kofarnihon River Basin in Central Asia. We also used Pettitt’s test to analyze the changes during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 time periods. This study revealed that the variations of climate variables have their significant spatial patterns and are strongly regulated by the altitude. From mountainous regions down to plain regions, the decadal temperature trends varied from −0.18 to 0.36 °C/decade and the variation of precipitation from −4.76 to −14.63 mm yr⁻¹ per decade. Considering the temporal variation, the temperature trends decreased in winter and significantly increased in spring, and the precipitation trends significantly decreased in spring but significantly increased in winter in the high-altitude areas. As consequence, total streamflow in headwater regions shows the obvious increase and clear seasonal variations. The mean monthly streamflow decreased in fall and winter and significantly increased in the spring and summer seasons which can be attributed to the influence of global warming on the rapid melting of snow and ice. Although the abrupt change points in air temperature and precipitation occurred around the 1970s and 1990s in the low-altitude areas and 2000s in the high-altitude areas during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 periods, the general trends of hydro–climatic variables keep consistent. This study benefits water resource management, socio–economic development, and sustainable agricultural planning in Tajikistan and its downstream countries.

【 授权许可】

Unknown