Two Ways to Quantify Korean Drought Frequency: Partial Duration Series and Bivariate Exponential Distribution, and Application to Climate Change

Atmosphere

Moo Jong Park¹  Sangdan Kim²  Okjeong Lee²  Jeongeun Won³  Jeonghyeon Choi³ 

[1] Department of Aeronautics and Civil Engineering, Hanseo University, Seosan 31962, Korea;Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea;Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea;

关键词: bivariate exponential distribution;    climate change;    drought severity–duration–frequency curve;    Korean drought;    standard precipitation index;    partial duration series;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos11050476

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Studies using drought index to examine return levels of drought can be classified into two approaches: univariate frequency analysis using annual series extracted from drought index time series and multivariate frequency analysis that simultaneously reflects various characteristics of drought. In the case of drought analysis, it is important to properly consider the duration, so, in this study, univariate frequency analysis is performed using the partial duration series. In addition, a bivariate frequency analysis is performed using a relatively simple bivariate exponential distribution to give a more realistic return level to major drought events in the past while reflecting the correlation between drought severities and durations. The drought severity–duration–frequency curves using each of the two frequency analyses are derived, and these curves are used to examine how the drought phenomenon currently in progress is evolving. From this, the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches, as well as the points to be aware of in application, are discussed. Finally, using the two approaches to the proposed drought frequency analysis, the behavior of Korea’s future extreme droughts is investigated under the conditions of various future climate change scenarios.

【 授权许可】

Unknown