Empirics of Korean Shipping Companies’ Default Predictions

Risks

Hyunsok Kim¹  Janghan Kwon²  Sunghwa Park³  Taeil Kim⁴ 

[1] College of Economics and International Trade, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea;Ocean Economy and Statistics Research Department, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan 49111, Korea;Shipping Finance Research Division, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan 49111, Korea;Shipping and Logistics Research Department, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan 49111, Korea;

关键词: default prediction;    shipping company;    logit model;    risk management;    financial information;   

DOI  :  10.3390/risks9090159

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In this paper, we use a logit model to predict the probability of default for Korean shipping companies. We explore numerous financial ratios to find predictors of a shipping firm’s failure and construct four default prediction models. The results suggest that a model with industry specific indicators outperforms other models in predictive ability. This finding indicates that utilizing information about unique financial characteristics of the shipping industry may enhance the performance of default prediction models. Given the importance of the shipping industry in the Korean economy, this study can benefit both policymakers and market participants.

【 授权许可】

Unknown