State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Ecosphere

Peter M. Groffman¹  John O’Donnell²  John Schalles²  Marcy E. Litvak³  Jennifer A. Rudgers³  William T. Pockman³  Scott L. Collins³  Seth Newsome³  Donald R. Young⁴  Julie C. Zinnert⁴  Steven C. Pennings⁵  Fan Li⁵  Christine Hladik⁶  Daniela Di Iorio⁷  Merryl Alber⁷  Adrian Burd⁷  John M. Blair⁸  Walter K. Dodds⁸  Jesse B. Nippert⁸  Ellen Herbert⁹  Grizelle González^1,10  Sara G. Baer^1,11  Christopher Craft^1,12 

[1] City University of New York Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center New York New York10031USA;Department of Biology Creighton University Omaha Nebraska68178USA;Department of Biology University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico87131USA;Department of Biology Virginia Commonwealth University 1000 West Cary Street Richmond Virginia23284USA;Department of Biology and Biochemistry University of Houston Houston Texas77204USA;Department of Geology and Geography Georgia Southern University Statesboro Georgia30460USA;Department of Marine Sciences University of Georgia Athens Georgia30602USA;Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas66506USA;Ducks Unlimited Memphis Tennessee38120USA;International Institute of Tropical Forestry United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Jardín Botánico Sur, 1201 Ceiba St.‐Río Piedras San Juan00926Puerto Rico;Kansas Biological Survey and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Kansas Lawrence Kansas66047USA;School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University Bloomington Indiana47405USA;

关键词: arid grassland;    coastal grassland;    coastal marsh;    sea‐level rise;    shrub invasion;    Special Feature: Forecasting Earth’s Ecosystems with Long‐Term Ecological Research;   

DOI  :  10.1002/ecs2.3433

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long‐term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in 50 or 100 yr based on long‐term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo (tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds (the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea‐level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate‐induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across a diverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long‐term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.

【 授权许可】

Unknown